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Anand, K B and Ramamurthy, K (2003) Laboratory-Based Productivity Study on Alternative Masonry Systems. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 237–42.

Bashford, H H, Sawhney, A, Walsh, K D and Kot, K (2003) Implications of Even Flow Production Methodology for U.S. Housing Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 330–7.

Chua, D K H, Shen, L J and Bok, S H (2003) Constraint-Based Planning with Integrated Production Scheduler over Internet. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 293–301.

Eldin, N and Hikle, V (2003) Pilot Study of Quality Function Deployment in Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 314–29.

Frutos, J D and Borenstein, D (2003) Object-Oriented Model for Customer-Building Company Interaction in Mass Customization Environment. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 302–13.

Huang, X and Hinze, J (2003) Analysis of Construction Worker Fall Accidents. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 262–71.

Pheng, L S and Pong, C Y (2003) Integrating ISO 9001 and OHSAS 18001 for Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 338–47.

Seydel, J (2003) Evaluating and Comparing Bidding Optimization Effectiveness. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 285–92.

Thomas, H R, Horman, M J, Minchin, R E and Chen, D (2003) Improving Labor Flow Reliability for Better Productivity as Lean Construction Principle. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 251–61.

Tischer, T E and Kuprenas, J A (2003) Bridge Falsework Productivity—Measurement and Influences. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 243–50.

Touran, A (2003) Probabilistic Model for Cost Contingency. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 280–4.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Probabilistic methods; Models; Cost control; Project management; project management; construction industry; probabilistic logic; modelling; cost optimal control; civil engineering;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2003)129:3(280)
  • Abstract:
    This paper proposes a probabilistic model for the calculation of project cost contingency by considering the expected number of changes and the average cost of change. The model assumes a Poisson arrival pattern for change orders and independent random variables for various change orders. The probability of cost overrun for a given contingency level is calculated. Typical input values to the model are estimated by reviewing several U.S. Army Corps of Engineers project logs, and numerical values of contingency are calculated and presented. The effect of various parameters on the contingency is discussed in detail.

Wilmot, C G and Cheng, G (2003) Estimating Future Highway Construction Costs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(03), 272–9.